Let me preface this blog by saying that I have an immense amount of confidence in Dominic Smith. I believe that he has the potential to be a perennial All-Star on any major league team. That being said, Smith must definitely be feeling the pressure because of Adrian Gonzalez’ good play on the big team and because of a shooting star in Double A.
Smith had an enigma of a debut in 2017. Over the course of 49 games and 167 at bats, Smith did very little at the plate and in the field to impress. His line looked like this, a .198 BA, .262. OBP, .395 SLG, .658 OPS as well as 9 HR’s and 26 RBI’s. His defense was also far off from his reputation as a defensive wizard in the minors. In those 49 games, he posted -7 DRS. However, what was a surprise was his power, specifically how many home runs he hit. He managed to pop out 9 home runs in his short stint. For anyone counting, that would have put him on pace to hit right around 30 home runs over the course of lets say 150 games. This was not his M.O. in the minors. While he displayed power, most scouts have him pegged to be maybe a 20 homer guy. He has been seen as a good pure hitter that could hit for a good average and play excellent defense. This all being said, Smith does have an exceptional pedigree and stat line in the minors which shoulld translate into him being a very good first basemen.
Enter Peter Alonso. Most ranking system have Alonso placed as the Mets 4th or 5th best prospect. This is for good reason . One look at his career stats, especially his power stats, will open your eyes quite a bit. Here is his career line in the minors, a .301 BA, .370 OBP, .554 SLG, and a .925 OPS. What does this mean? It means that Alonso hits the ball hard and is an extra base machine. In fact, over the course of just 131 minor league games in his career, he has hit 26 home runs. Over a 150 game season, that translates to roughly 31 or 32 homers. One might say, well that is against minor league pitching. This is true, but does not disprove my point that this kid, at just 23, has legitimate power. Power that will only get better as he get older. In fact, according to a few beat reporters, even with just 19 games at Double A, Alonso has already earned a promotion but hasn’t gotten it because he is being blocked by Smith in Triple A. While Dominic Smith profiles as a guy that could hit .280-290 with 20 homers, Alonso profiles like a guy that could hit you .265 but with 35-40 homers. The big knock on Alonso is his defense. In 2017, he had a .972 FPCT caused by 19 errors over 83 games. This is obviously a huge issue for any prospect trying to break into the bigs.
Because of the pedigree, MLB experience, and defensive prowess of Smith, I think he is the better all around player. That being said, I think this is what makes him expendable in this case. With A-Gon playing like he has, Smith is not likely to see much time in the majors anytime soon, barring injury. We also have a potential 40 home run guy nipping at his heals in Double A. With all the talk recently of the need for an upgrade at catcher or for another player at the deadline, I wonder if a package could be made centered around Smith. He is a highly touted prospect with MLB experience that could slot into the 1B position right now for any team. Alonso’ defense is an issue, but if he can work on it with major league coaching, having a 35-40 homer guy at first instead of Smith definitely would make his loss a bit easier to take if you ask me.
Either way, the problem here is a good problem to have. The Mets have 1st basemen producing at Double A, Triple A, and in the majors. Agree or disagree, if you have something to say, Shea Something in the comments section.
Shea Something 