Is Dominic Smith Expendable?

Let me preface this blog by saying that I have an immense amount of confidence in Dominic Smith.  I believe that he has the potential to be a perennial All-Star on any major league team.  That being said, Smith must definitely be feeling the pressure because of Adrian Gonzalez’ good play on the big team and because of a shooting star in Double A.

Smith had an enigma of a debut in 2017.  Over the course of 49 games and 167 at bats, Smith did very little at the plate and in the field to impress.  His line looked like this, a .198 BA, .262. OBP, .395 SLG, .658 OPS as well as 9 HR’s and 26 RBI’s.  His defense was also far off from his reputation as a defensive wizard in the minors.  In those 49 games, he posted -7 DRS.  However, what was a surprise was his power, specifically how many home runs he hit.  He managed to pop out 9 home runs in his short stint.  For anyone counting, that would have put him on pace to hit right around 30 home runs over the course of lets say 150 games.  This was not his M.O. in the minors.  While he displayed power, most scouts have him pegged to be maybe a 20 homer guy.  He has been seen as a good pure hitter that could hit for a good average and play excellent defense.  This all being said, Smith does have an exceptional pedigree and stat line in the minors which shoulld translate into him being a very good first basemen.

Enter Peter Alonso.  Most ranking system have Alonso placed as the Mets 4th or 5th best prospect.  This is for good reason . One look at his career stats, especially his power stats, will open your eyes quite a bit.  Here is his career line in the minors, a .301 BA, .370 OBP, .554 SLG, and a .925 OPS.  What does this mean? It means that Alonso hits the ball hard and is an extra base machine.  In fact, over the course of just 131 minor league games in his career, he has hit 26 home runs.  Over a 150 game season, that translates to roughly 31 or 32 homers.  One might say, well that is against minor league pitching.  This is true, but does not disprove my point that this kid, at just 23, has legitimate power.  Power that will only get better as he get older.  In fact, according to a few beat reporters, even with just 19 games at Double A, Alonso has already earned a promotion but hasn’t gotten it because he is being blocked by Smith in Triple A.  While Dominic Smith profiles as a guy that could hit .280-290 with 20 homers, Alonso profiles like a guy that could hit you .265 but with 35-40 homers.  The big knock on Alonso is his defense.  In 2017, he had a .972 FPCT caused by 19 errors over 83 games.  This is obviously a huge issue for any prospect trying to break into the bigs.

Because of the pedigree, MLB experience, and defensive prowess of Smith, I think he is the better all around player.  That being said, I think this is what makes him expendable in this case.  With A-Gon playing like he has, Smith is not likely to see much time in the majors anytime soon, barring injury.  We also have a potential 40 home run guy nipping at his heals in Double A.  With all the talk recently of the need for an upgrade at catcher or for another player at the deadline, I wonder if a package could be made centered around Smith.  He is a highly touted prospect with MLB experience that could slot into the 1B position right now for any team.  Alonso’ defense is an issue, but if he can work on it with major league coaching, having a 35-40 homer guy at first instead of Smith definitely would make his loss a bit easier to take if you ask me.

Either way, the problem here is a good problem to have.  The Mets have 1st basemen producing at Double A, Triple A, and in the majors.  Agree or disagree, if you have something to say, Shea Something in the comments section.

 

4/15/18: No More Tears

On a day that saw many Met fans crying that the teams winning streak had come to an end, the team started a brand new one.  In typical 2018 Mets fashion, the team bounced back nicely from from a defeat to take the series from the Brewers.  The game included some dominant pitching, a 3-5 night from a budding star, and late inning heroics from an old fashioned Mets folk hero.

The first half of the game was the Noah Syndergaard show.  While Thor only made it through 5 1/3 innings, he was as dominant as ever in the showing.  In those 5 1/3 innings, Syndergaard allowed just 1 hit and 1 run (0 earned) while striking out 11.  At one point in the game, Syndergaard struck out 8 Brewers in a row.  Syndergaard’s season seems to be rounding into form and I expect his dominance to continue.

Another impressive performance came from the hands of Brandon Nimmo.  Nimmo completed 3/4 of the cycle by getting a base hit, a triple, and a home run.  It seems harder and harder to ignore the fact that Nimmo deserves regular reps on a major league team.  Nimmo ends the game sporting a .400 BA, .571 OBP, and a 1.371 OPS.

The real heroics of the night came in the bottom of the 9th.  Up until that time, the game had been tied 2-2.  Enter Wilmer Flores.  Flores proceeded to add to his lure as a Mets folk hero by sending a ball deep into the freezing Queens air.  In one swing, Flores wiped away the tears of crying Mets fans from the night before, and reminded everyone that there is no crying in baseball.  The walk off homer ended the game and gave the Mets another victory, pushing them to a 12-2 record.

The Mets welcome in the Nationals tomorrow night by throwing Jacob Degrom at them (so much for welcoming).  This series may very well be the most important series in April.  If the Mets can take two out of three games from the Nats, they will have a 7 game lead on them in the division.  However, if they can sweep them, the Mets will have a 9 GAME LEAD!  As always, is you have something to say, Shea it in the comments below.

4/13/18: The Toddfather Made Us an Offer We Couldn’t Refuse

Ok, I apologize for the horribly tacky reference of a headline, but this game felt good.  The Amazins increased their record to a dazzling 11-1 today with a 6-5 victory of the Milwaukee Brewers.  It is April 13th and the Mets are already sporting a record that is 10 games over .500.  That being said, no I’m not sorry for the headline, I lied, this is awesome.

Up until this point, we really had not seen any of the power that we had heard about from Frazier at all.  We have seen some clutch hitting, some excellent defense, amazing leadership, and an invisible salt and pepper grinder from Frazier, but not much of the power that got him 35 homers in 2015 and 40 more in 2016.  But that changed quickly in the victory today which seemed to be Frazier’s coming-out party to Mets faithful.

In a game that saw a so so performance from Steven Matz, 5.1 IP, 3 H’s, 4 R’s, 3 ER’s, 2 BB’s, 5 K’s, Todd Frazier was the star.  Frazier hit 2 home runs, one in the 2nd inning and one in the 4th.  He also did not record an out, going 3 for 3 with a walk.  Combine that with a wild pitch and RBI’s from Cespedes, Gonzalez, and Bruce, the Mets were able to fight off a Brewers team that scored 5 runs of their own.

So here’s to your 11-1 Mets and many more atrocious references from yours truly.  As always, if you agree, disagree, or like to add to the conversation, Shea Something in the comments section.

UPDATE: Plawecki Out!

After getting plunked by a 98 mph fastball on Wednesday, it has been confirmed that Kevin Plawecki has suffered a hairline fracture in his hand.  Initial x-rays after the game had come back negative, but after undergoing an MRI, it was confirmed that initial reports were incorrect.  Plawecki is expected to be out 2-3 weeks.

This injury comes on the heels of the news of Travis d’Arnaud’s season ending injury that may require Tommy John surgery.  Until the Mets can figure out a long-term solution, it seems that Tomas Nido and Jose Lobaton will man the position.  However, there are reports circulating that the upper brass have made contact with the Marlins about their catcher J.T. Realmuto.  Stay tuned folks.

Catching Options For Mets

As many of you have heard, NYM catcher Travis d’Arnaud has suffered a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament, aka. Tommy John surgery may be on the horizon.  This seems to leave the Mets catching situation in a rather tenuous position.  In the wake of d’Arnaud’s injury, the team called up Tomas Nido to the big leagues.  According to assistant general manager John Ricco, Kevin Plawecki will get the majority of the playing time now with Nido and Jose Lobaton in Triple A providing depth.  “We have a lot of faith in Kevin and we have two guys in Tomas and Jose that we got just for this reason”

While this in-house route seems to be the direction the team is going, Ricco did not exactly rule out the idea of a different short or long-term solution, “We are obviously going to discuss short-term and long-term ramifications of this”.  With that being said, lets discuss some of the options for the team going forward….

Plawecki/Nimo/Lobaton Combination:

It seems to be the plan right now to give Kevin Plawecki the bulk of the playing time for now.  Historically, Plawecki has struggled during many of his chances with the big team.  That being said, he began to show signs of the hitting potential he showcased in the minors at the end of the 2017 season.  These signs of improvement seemed to carry over to Spring Training this year where he batted .270 with a .341 OBP, .747 OPS, 1 HR and 7 RBI’s.  These promising results are what spurred the team to basically split time between d’Arnaud and Plawecki during the season.  However, these results have not seemed to translate just yet to the 2018 season, be it a small sample size so far.  So far this season Plawecki has hit to the tune of a .150 BA (3-20), 0 HR’s, and 1 RBI.  His OBP has been encouraging though at .393.  One other issue has been his ability to throw out baserunners.  Plawecki in 2017 threw out baserunners at 19% clip, well below league average.  This may be as much a product of Mets pitching which has struggled to hold runners on, but a poor statistic none the less.

Tomas Nido has been the next touted catching prospect for the team the last few seasons.  Known as a good defensive catcher primarily, his offensive numbers in the minors have been so-so so far.  He owns a career .273 BA, but also sports a .273 OBP and .636 OPS with little power to speak of.  What makes Nimo enticing is his defensive prowess, specifically his arm.   In 2017 with Binghamton, Nimo threw out 45% of runners trying to swipe a bag against him.  If he could translate this number to the big leagues or anything close, it would be a huge benefit to the team.

In the offseason, the Mets signed Jose Lobaton to a minor league deal purely for depth purposes at the position.  Lobaton would provide a veteran presence behind the plate and has had some major league success in the past, but was awful in 51 games with the Nationals last year.  He hit a mere .170 BA, .277 OBP, .525 OPS, with 4 HR’s and 11 RBI’s.  He also managed to throw out just 20% of runners last year, well below league average.  At best, Lobaton provides a veteran presence behind the plate and that’s about it.

Miguel Montero:

At 34 years old, Montero is the oldest option on this list.  He was recently designated for assignment by the Nationals.  Montero, like Lobaton, provides a good veteran presence behind the plate, with playoff experience as well.  Montero has also had success in the big leagues as recently as 2015 where he hit .248 with a .345 OBP, .754 OPS, 15 HR’s and 53 RBI’s.  That was the year the Cubs went to the playoffs and made it to the NLCS but were eliminated in just 4 games (hmm I wonder who did that).  Anyway, Montero definitely is on the decline as he sported a .216 BA, .310 OBP, and .656 OPS in 2017.  He also sported the lowest caught stealing percentage of his career at a mere 8%.  Montero’s relationship with the Cubs also ended in some drama when he was cut by the team after criticizing Jake Arrieta for not holding runners on and getting blamed for the stolen bases that followed.  I don’t know about you, but that seems like a recipe for disaster for the Mets if you know what I mean.

Jonathan Lucroy:

The 2x All Star has been a premier catcher for a while now  He has been excellent on both sides of the ball.  In what may have been his best year, Lucroy sported an impressive .292 BA, .355 OBP, .855 OPS, with 24 HR’s and 81 RBI’s.  He also threw out 39% of runners the ran against him!  Lucroy’s 2017 was more of a down year.  He still hit .265 but only belted 6 HR’s and had a .371 slugging percentage.  He did still throw out 27% of runners though which was about league average.  Lucroy would be an interesting trade candidate because he is 32 and may have a few years of production left in him.  If he can sport anything close to his 2016 numbers, it would be a major upgrade for this Mets team.

J.T. Realmuto:

Perhaps the most costly trade proposed here, and for good reason, is the Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto.  At 27 years old, Realmuto is coming into his prime, and his numbers are showing that.  In 2017, Realmuto posted an excellent line, a .278 BA, .332 OBP, .783 OPS, with 17 HR’s and 65 RBI’s.  Whats also interesting to note is that in the 4 years Realmuto has been in the league, his games played as well as his home run totals have increased every year.  Realmuto may very well turn into a 20+ home run threat at catcher.  Oh, he also threw out 32% of runners in 2017 and 35% in 2016.  He would be a hard get though.  Miami has been in the midst of yet another very public fire sale and may demand quite a bit for the catcher since he provides excellent numbers at a position so devoid of production at times.  Think a Matz or Rosario swap for the catcher.

Salvador Perez:

Ok, this one may be more of a pipe dream on my part, but I wonder if the Mets would consider engaging the Royals in talks for their face of the franchise.  He is coming of an offseason knee injury (something that should not be ignored) and has logged a huge amount of innings behind the plate over the past few years.  That being said, he is perhaps the most accomplished catcher on this list and is still only 27 years old.  He is a 5x All Star, has won 4 Gold Gloves, as well as a World Series champ in 2015 (don’t say it, I just stopped crying).  In my humble opinion, he may be the best defensive catcher in the big leagues behind only Yadier Molina.  This type of presence behind the plate would do wonders for this pitching staff.  He has also hit 20 or more home runs every year since 2015.  He hit 27 last year in just 129 games!  He is a career .272 hitter and threw out 48% of runners trying to steal in 2016.  Thats almost half…..half!  Those caught stealing numbers did take a dip in 2017 though.  He is also not exactly the OBP machine Sandy Alderson usually desires with a career number at just .301.

The Mets more than likely will go the in-house route with Plawecki, Nimo, and Lobaton, especially this early in the season.  If I had to choose anyone though, I would love Perez.  He is in my opinion the best catcher of the lot.  You may be able to negotiate a bit with KC on a trade proposal because of his most recent injury and the beating he has taken behind the plate.  That being said, he is the face of that franchise at this point which still may make it a tough trade to sell.  As always, if you agree, disagree, or have something to add, Shea Something in the comments section.

 

Stellar Pitching, Clutch Hitting, and an Odd Pitching Change Leads to 10-1 Start of 2018

(4/11/2018) Your lovable New York Mets defeated the Miami Marlins today by a score of 4-1.  The team continues its historic start to the 2018 season by improving their record to 10-1, something the Mets have never done in their history.

After a brief stint in Triple A, Zack Wheeler made his season debut with the big team by throwing 7 innings of one run ball.  The lone run Wheeler gave up came in the 1st inning off the bat of Miguel Rojas.  This proved to be the only real mistake Wheeler made the whole game, as he proceeded to retire the next 16 Marlins.  Wheelers final line was a good one. 7 IP/ 2 H / 1 R / 1 ER / 1 BB / 7 SO

Perhaps the strangest part of the game came after the 6th inning when Don Mattingly took Marlins starting pitcher Jarlin Garcia out of the game after throwing just 77 pitches. Up until that point, Garcia had a no-hitter going and was dominating the Mets lineup.  Garcia had previously been a piece out of the bullpen which perhaps played a role in the decision to take him out of the game.

Once Garcia had been removed from the game, your new look New York Mets did what they have done best in 2018, they came back from a deficit once again with clutch hitting.  In the 8th inning, the Mets got started because of a Plawecki HBP from a 98 MPH fastball thrown by Tyron Guerrero.  Michael Conforto proceeded to double down the right field line putting runners on 2nd and 3rd for Adrian Gonzalez.  The veteran hit a single up the middle and through the shift to score both Plawecki and Conforto.  A Flores double, Cabrera single, and Frazier sac fly accounted for the other 2 runs.

Your 10-1 Mets next game is Friday, April 13th against the Milwaukee Brewers.  Hopefully the teams magical start to the season does not end anytime soon.  If you are as excited as we are, Shea Something in the comments section and let us know.

 

I Can Remember

I can remember my first Mets game.  It was awe-inspiring being that little walking into a place that big.  I can remember my very first favorite Met player, Todd Hundley.  I still have his baseball card with that magical 41 homer season circled on the back.  I can remember my mother arguing with me because I thought our third baseman’s name was actually “Ho Jo” and not Howard Johnson.  I can remember screaming at the television because that ball Todd Zeile hit off the top of the wall was actually a home run against the Yankees during the 2000 World Series.  I can also still remember the pain in my hand when I broke it punching my closet door after watching Carlos Beltran stare at a hanger from Adam Wainwright during the 2006 NLCS.  I can remember that through all of this, I still loved the Mets.

As with any relationship, there are good times and bad times.  The New York Mets and myself are no different.  The team has been a part of my life ever since my mother introduced them to me almost three decades ago.  I have laughed with this team, cheered with this team, and cried with this team (more times than I would like to admit).  But here is the kicker, like any relationship, all these things only made the bond stronger.  My happiness is as much tied to their success as it is to anything else in my life.

I love talking baseball with people.  The need to debate and bounce ideas around has driven me to want to start this blog.  Most conversation about our favorite teams no longer occur around the dinner table or within the confines of the hallowed halls of our favorite stadiums, they occur online.  Hopefully, we have created another venue for Mets fans like myself to voice their opinions, propose their trades, and maybe even visit some of their favorite memories from the past.  So, as you visit this blog, I ask you for only one thing, Shea Something interesting.  I will remember….